Anthony Marguleas, founder of Amalfi Estates, has done a year post-fire analysis of the Pacific Palisades Real Estate Market.
“Permitting it taking around three months, so this is not an issue,” Marguleas said. “Inventory is building, but absorption remains strong, and we are about halfway through the expected supply.”
The total number of lots in the Palisades was 5,900 and Marguleas said that “1,475 Lots represents our current estimate of the total number of lots that will likely come to the market. That’s based on total homes lost, current sell-through trends and research of other major California fires.”
Of the 683 lots have come on the market so far, “483 have been sold, 27 are in escrow and currently there are 173 for sale,” Marguleas said.
According to the Amalfi founder, the spike shown on August, September and October on the chart below was because it was the bottom of the market. He said of those buyers about 50 percent were developers and 50 percent owners/users, who were buying their neighbors lots.
“There has been about a 10-15 percent price increase in the last few months,” he said.
Also, 14 months after the fire, the first fully rebuilt home is on the market and listed for $7,495,000.
The home on Las Lomas Place was built by Dan and Asaf Grossman and co-listed with Marguleas and Dan Urbach of Compass. The original home was just one month from completion when it was destroyed in the 2025 Palisades Fire. The owners chose to rebuild using fire-resistant materials.
The newly built contemporary home features 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms across approximately 4,000 square feet on a 16,927-square-foot corner lot with panoramic ocean views.
“This is the first time the market has to stop speculating and actually price the rebuild,” Marguleas said. With only a handful of rebuilds expected to deliver in the near term, supply of new construction will remain extremely limited even as demand builds.
“This listing will likely be closely watched by both developers and insurers as a signal for how quickly the market can reset,” he said. “This sale could set the tone for pricing on the next wave of rebuilds expected to come online over the next 12 to 24 months.”
“The surprising part is permitting isn’t the issue,” Marguleas said. “We’re seeing approvals in about three and a half months. The real slowdown is payout from insurance companies in order to rebuild, that’s what’s holding back supply.”
Great report !